Trend Forecasting, Part 2 – EDITD’s approach
Posted: October 20, 2011 Filed under: trends, London Fashion Week, behind the scenes, New York Fashion Week, spring/summer, Paris Fashion Week, Milan Fashion Week | Tags: fashion, trend forecasting, trends, EDITD, Geoff Watts 3 Comments »
Spring/Summer 12 colour palette according to EDITD's analysis of the show season
A few weeks ago I made an attempt at explaining how trend forecasting works. At the time I focused on the more traditional way of doing things, not discussing the new kid on the block. This was mainly done because the first post wasn’t exactly light on information but also because I wanted to wait and see how I find the newbie. Old Street-based trend forecasting service EDITD crawls the web to gather details from retailers and to monitor the mood on social networking sites. Then they take this data to make their reports and to forecast trends for brands, retailers and suppliers so they can base their business decisions on facts rather than educated guesses.
Last week I received their first analysis of fashion month, EDITD’s Spring/Summer 2012 Fashion Week Wrap. ’25 million tweets and updates covering fashion weeks in New York, London, Milan and Paris over a month were analysed to give a unique, definitive overview of Spring/Summer 2012,’ the company’s co-founder Geoff Watts explains in his email. Following the link what I found was a detailed yet concise summary of the shows we just saw. The report describes how brands have benefited from a well thought-out social and digital strategy, visualises the season’s main colour palette as well as one for each of the four fashion cities, informs us that Givenchy and Louis Vuitton were well liked and that Yves Klein Blue was the predominant hue across the board. It also shows florals are the most talked about print of the season, lists sportswear and under-the-sea as the two most influential themes, and charts people’s reaction (love, hate, neutral) to the most important topics (eg. retro, feminine, Chanel).
I also liked their selection of 16 key looks and how EDITD explains why each of these looks will be important come spring. Lists of the 10 top designers, styles and prints conclude the coverage.
Although rather short I feel that the report covers everything most people will need to take away from the shows at this point. Of course buyers in particular will need more specific information (that EDITD provides) but what it does is filter out the main trends. I liked the way the data is presented and think it helped me sharpen my focus in some areas. The graph visualising peoples reactions to specific topics is particularly interesting. Of course there was no way around noticing all the retro shapes on the runway but I was surprised that EDITD’s data found 80% of these reactions to be negative. The colour analysis of the similarities and differences between New York, London, Milan and Paris also provides insight into what we’ll want to wear next season.
Generally I feel that data analysis on this level is a great addition but not quite a replacement for traditional trend forecasting. But I don’t think that that is EDITD’s aim. It does seem to bring some much-needed structure and logic into a field that tends to rely on instincts. On the other hand human interpretation and indeed instinct is something that is hard to express in numbers so my ideal solution is to have the best of both worlds.
To read the whole report, go to EDITD’s website.
New York Fashion Week Recap (SS12)
Posted: September 22, 2011 Filed under: autumn/winter, New York, New York Fashion Week, trends | Tags: Alejandro Ingelmo, Alexander Wang, Ashley Olsen, Christian Siriano, Cushnie et Ochs, Doo.Ri, fashion, Helmut Lang, J.Crew, Jason Wu, Jenna Lyons, Jenni Kayne, Mary-Kate Olsen, Michael and Nicole Colovos, New York, New York Fashion Week, Olivier Theyskens, Oscar de la Renta, Prabal Gurung, Preen, Ralph Lauren, SS12, The Row, Theyskens' Theory, Zac Posen Leave a comment »While everyone has been quick to post their favourite looks from New York Fashion Week, I’ve taken my sweet time. The main reason being that it’s all just too much. I can get through all the shows, analyse trends, and form an opinion. That’s not the problem. It’s rather that I look at how many shows I have to get through in order to come up with my selection of, say, 10 images that I liked and that I consider important and automatically I don’t want to and every other task seems to hold more interest. Time to write that email I’ve meant to send for days now. Oh, I cannot possibly write a blog post while there are dirty dishes in the sink. And so on. You know it’s bad when even housework looks more appealing. I guess my point is that while I love fashion (I made it my job after all), I couldn’t care less for the circus that is fashion week. It would all be more enjoyable if we slowed things down a little. Let the mass hysteria that surrounds the event calm down a bit. Some of the designers seem to agree with me. Tom Ford famously tries to protect himself from the fatigue his customers will inevitably experience seeing his looks for months before they become available by keeping his show ultra-private with no photos allowed. Vena Cava released their SS12 lookbook the night before NYFW had officially started and held a dinner in the Meatpacking in celebration of the collection. No runway show, no presentation.
But every cloud has a silver lining and for me that is the brands which focus on putting out good clothes instead of promoting a different version of ‘thematic’ dressing season after season. Let’s dive in!
JENNI KAYNE
Jenni Kayne: looks 3, 6 and 13 on style.com
Jenni Kayne mixed country club chic with a hint of athleticism which was also *the* major theme running through most collections. Overall I found the pieces as understated as I’ve come to expect from Kayne and I’m sure they’ll be easy to wear. The trouser of look 13 looks like a preppier version of Olivier Theyskens’ slouchy jean for AW11 to me and I think that means it will go on my SS12 wish list.
CUSHNIE ET OCHS
Cushnie et Ochs: looks 3, 12 and 16 on style.com
Cushnie et Ochs experimented with colour this season. There were pink, yellow, camel and black – all of which cropped up in many other collections. Generally, I think we’re in for a lot of bright pink next spring with yellow coming in a close second. Plunging necklines seem to be another trend to emerge from NY and I particularly like how they’re done here. The pictures I chose wouldn’t suggest that but peplums were big in this collection (and many others), too.
JASON WU
Jason Wu: looks 3, 9, 30 and 34 on style.com
Plenty of peplums here too. Most dresses had mullet hemlines which I normally hate but didn’t hate here. Which only goes to show that I can like almost anything if it’s done the right way. According to the designer he wanted his spring offering to be “clean and couture — but with some very quirky elements”. I’m on board with clean and quirky details but I’m strongly against the misuse of the word couture. It’s a very narrowly defined term (it’s individually made and not mass-produced to begin with) and really not there to describe putting extraordinary effort into a collection. Shocking pinks and electric blues also featured in Wu’s collection. The petal prints used throughout were a collaboration with New York graffiti artist Kaws. I also loved Wu’s chiffon windbreakers.
DOO.RI
Doo.ri: looks 4, 5, 9 and 13 on style.com
Doo.ri showed a lovely collection that seemed fluid on the bottom but tailored on top. Legs were on display and I adore her colour palette. Purple seemed to be another trend which was even more prominent at Prabal Gurung. I loved so many pieces but to be honest, wasn’t too keen on the fringing.
THE ROW
The Row: 3, 6, 16 and 22 from style.com
When I think about how young the Olsen twins are and how great The Row is after only a handful of seasons, it’s easy to predict that we can expect many great clothes from them in the future. I love how they always keep things simple but interesting at the same time. Their clothes have always had a modern sensibility that reminds me of Phoebe Philo’s. This season is no different: delicate whites give the collection lightness with the faintest of sorbet colours (mint, peach, blush pink) complimenting it. It seems to be all about trousers for me at the moment because, again, I love the pair in look 3: a slouchy, elongated tuxido trouser that’s just perfectly styled with a white t-shirt.
PRABAL GURUNG
Prabal Gurung: looks 4, 7, 16 and 37 on style.com
I mean, this collection is just ridiculously beautiful! The vibrant violets, electric purples, fuchisa and seafoam broken up with black and white are irresistible. Many looks were styled with harnesses to toughen them up. Highly original collection.
ALEXANDER WANG
Alexander Wang: looks 8, 12 and 17 plus detail shot 68 on style.com
The thing with Alexander Wang for me is that he makes really wearable, covetable clothes but so far he has worked more like a stylist than a designer. Something that’s also been said about Marc Jacobs but I feel it’s much more evident in Wang’s collections. This season, however, he displayed (or hopefully: started to display) his design ability and I love the outcome. Inspired by motocross and BMX, Wang serves up a sporty collection with lots of mesh overlays – bodysuits, windbreakers, nylon peplum jackets, Bermuda shorts. This helps to give his botanical prints an urban edge. Talk of the show were of course his oversized backpacks (in the loveliest burgundy and navy). I’m already curious how many we’ll see on New York streets come spring.
HELMUT LANG
Helmut Lang: looks 6, 24 and 25 on style.com
Helmut Lang is one of my favourite labels. I could gladly live in Helmut Lang and Theyskens’ Theory with not much else. It’s obviously not featured much in magazines but many stylists and editors wear it themselves. The runway show was the label’s first since Michael and Nicole Colovos started designing it 5 years ago. The usual black, white and grey palette was extended with yellow this season which seems like a fitting development of AW’s oranges and rusty reds. The shoes for the show were platforms designed by Alejandro Ingelmo who held his own presentation as well – ravishing!
ZAC POSEN
Zac Posen: looks 1, 9, 16, 22 on style.com
The show marked Zac’s return to New York after a brief stint in Paris. But to me it also felt a bit like ‘the return of the old Zac’. The designer focused on great cuts, corsets and a mermaid hemline which I consider a Zac signature.
PREEN
Preen: looks 7, 9, 25 and 35 on style.com
Preen showed one of the most well-reviewed collections in New York. Their amazing use of colour, their palette amounted in one of the most unique visions I’ve seen in a while. The clothes were beautifully light and airy and I loved the mix of materials. Who knew lace and techno fabrics would work together so well?
THEYSKENS’ THEORY
Theyskens' Theory: looks 2, 22 and 44 on style.com
I simply cannot say enough great things about Theyskens’ Theory. This is EXACTLY how I want to dress. Olivier Theyskens undeniably plays into the downtown girl aesthetic and that’s fine with me. I like to be properly dressed but laid back at the same time. Too polished simply isn’t for me but that doesn’t mean I don’t like to make an effort. His silhouette got the slightest update from the previous season which means that trousers got a little narrower. But of course Olivier didn’t send any old skinny jeans down the runway. His version is high-waisted and skinny but slouchy at the same time (although I do wonder if they’ll also hang as nicely on me as they do on the model, ahem) which sounds very confused but isn’t. The high waist is broken up by a ‘double waistband’ – one around your waist, one around your hips. I also loved what the designer called ‘clutch pockets’ on his jackets. The pockets sit very high up almost underneath the armpit and look almost like the wearer has a clutch wedged under her arm. The black evening dress (look 44) is the stuff (my) dreams are made of. It was the only looked styled with biker boots while everything else was paired with highest heels known to womankind. Maybe there is something Olivier and I don’t agree on after all?
OSCAR DE LA RENTA
Oscar de la Renta: looks 14, 23, 37 and 47 on style.com
Season after season Oscar de la Renta puts out the most beautiful clothes imaginable. There never seems to be a grand plan or concept to his collections just tons of inspiration that results in dresses that will make you feel your most pretty. The only thing I didn’t like about this show was the styling. For me it just tried to be something that it’s not. I really don’t think you need to add any bells and whistles to de la Renta’s clothes.
Puh, almost through! See, I do get excited by the clothes. There were a few collections that stood out but I ended up not featuring for one reason or another. Thom Browne is definitely worth a look. And as mentioned before: Alejandro Ingelmo. I will try and get some more info from his PR and post that later. Here are pictures on fashionologie.com from his presentation – without exception, I want them ALL. There also were a few surprises. Christian Siriano (of Project Runway fame) put out a sophisticated and streamlined collection. With his and Wang’s work this season, are they all coming into their own now? Highstreet retailer J.Crew held a presentation which didn’t look out of place at all among the designer lines at NYFW. They’ve improved so much under Jenna Lyons’ direction, it’s exciting to watch what they’ll do next. I also liked Ralph Lauren’s wedding inspired show which was the best the label has been in a while.
Did I forget anyone or anything? What were your favourite shows? How do you like my picks? Love some? Hate others? I’d love to hear your thoughts!
