Trend Forecasting, Part 2 – EDITD’s approach
Posted: October 20, 2011 Filed under: trends, London Fashion Week, behind the scenes, New York Fashion Week, spring/summer, Paris Fashion Week, Milan Fashion Week | Tags: fashion, trend forecasting, trends, EDITD, Geoff Watts 3 Comments »
Spring/Summer 12 colour palette according to EDITD's analysis of the show season
A few weeks ago I made an attempt at explaining how trend forecasting works. At the time I focused on the more traditional way of doing things, not discussing the new kid on the block. This was mainly done because the first post wasn’t exactly light on information but also because I wanted to wait and see how I find the newbie. Old Street-based trend forecasting service EDITD crawls the web to gather details from retailers and to monitor the mood on social networking sites. Then they take this data to make their reports and to forecast trends for brands, retailers and suppliers so they can base their business decisions on facts rather than educated guesses.
Last week I received their first analysis of fashion month, EDITD’s Spring/Summer 2012 Fashion Week Wrap. ’25 million tweets and updates covering fashion weeks in New York, London, Milan and Paris over a month were analysed to give a unique, definitive overview of Spring/Summer 2012,’ the company’s co-founder Geoff Watts explains in his email. Following the link what I found was a detailed yet concise summary of the shows we just saw. The report describes how brands have benefited from a well thought-out social and digital strategy, visualises the season’s main colour palette as well as one for each of the four fashion cities, informs us that Givenchy and Louis Vuitton were well liked and that Yves Klein Blue was the predominant hue across the board. It also shows florals are the most talked about print of the season, lists sportswear and under-the-sea as the two most influential themes, and charts people’s reaction (love, hate, neutral) to the most important topics (eg. retro, feminine, Chanel).
I also liked their selection of 16 key looks and how EDITD explains why each of these looks will be important come spring. Lists of the 10 top designers, styles and prints conclude the coverage.
Although rather short I feel that the report covers everything most people will need to take away from the shows at this point. Of course buyers in particular will need more specific information (that EDITD provides) but what it does is filter out the main trends. I liked the way the data is presented and think it helped me sharpen my focus in some areas. The graph visualising peoples reactions to specific topics is particularly interesting. Of course there was no way around noticing all the retro shapes on the runway but I was surprised that EDITD’s data found 80% of these reactions to be negative. The colour analysis of the similarities and differences between New York, London, Milan and Paris also provides insight into what we’ll want to wear next season.
Generally I feel that data analysis on this level is a great addition but not quite a replacement for traditional trend forecasting. But I don’t think that that is EDITD’s aim. It does seem to bring some much-needed structure and logic into a field that tends to rely on instincts. On the other hand human interpretation and indeed instinct is something that is hard to express in numbers so my ideal solution is to have the best of both worlds.
To read the whole report, go to EDITD’s website.
Paris Fashion Week Recap (SS12)
Posted: October 7, 2011 Filed under: Paris Fashion Week, spring/summer | Tags: Alber Elbaz, Alexander McQueen, Balmain, Carven, Céline, Chanel, Dries van Noten, fashion, Givenchy, Guillaume Henry, Karl Lagerfeld, Lanvin, Lori Goldstein, Maiyet, Olivier Rousteing, Paris Fashion Week, Phoebe Philo, Riccardo Tisci, Roland Mouret, Sarah Burton, SS12 1 Comment »Welcome to the final installment (for the next six months) of me drooling over runway shots! Paris Fashion Week closed on Wednesday and I’ve made my picks.
ALEXANDER McQUEEN
Alexander McQueen: looks 9, 13, 17 and 18 on style.com
Alexander McQueen: looks 23, 26, 30 and 31 on style.com
Another amazing McQueen show! It’s interesting to see how Sarah Burton takes Lee’s signatures and somehow makes them more feminine and light. Her collections still look very much like they come from the label but they also have a different quality to them. Even her metal harnesses didn’t really weigh the models down. It was a truly breathtaking show but without most of the theatre that went down with Lee at the helm. Admittedly, I still sometimes wonder ‘what if’.
BALMAIN
Balmain: looks 5, 6, 15 and 21 on style.com
Olivier Rousteing showed his first collection for the label since taking over this spring. To me it felt like the perfect continuation of what has made Balmain successful in recent years but with a ever so slightly loosened silhouette. There was still lots of embroidery, especially on their signature statement jackets. But over all the clothes were a little less of a rock ‘n’ roll cliche and appeared a little softer and more elegant. Thumbs up!
CARVEN
Carven: looks 4, 7, 12 and 28 on style.com
Everyone seems to love Carven and, yes, I love them too. Look how they took a very strange source of inspiration and turned it into something ultra-modern and covetable. Has Guillaume Henry been to the Alps recently? Because those cross-chest straps look a lot like those of lederhosen. The silhouette seems dirndl-inspired as well. A mix of prim collars and leather and a colour palette of red, mustard and pink made this collection very young. I really hope the yellow leather dress finds its way into my closet somehow!
CÉLINE
Celine: looks 13, 14, 25 and 26 on style.com
Phoebe Philo had editors swooning. Again. Well, not Cathy Horyn but virtually everybody else. She offered up high waists, peplums, wide trousers and block tones of red, plum, brown and green. Not sure how practical they are going to be in the summer (*coughcough* Kanye *coughcough*) but Phoebe’s leather t-shirts were a real stand-out for me. I also loved her micro-pleated leather skirts. Imagine how soft the leather must be in order to be molded like that.
CHANEL
Chanel: looks 36, 52, 53 and 71 on style.com
Chanel: looks 75 and 76, beauty shot 32, detail shot 36 on style.com
Words cannot describe how awestruck I am by Karl Lagerfeld. This man is almost 80 years old, one of the oldest working designers – at this level at least – but he is also the most forward thinking and modern in his approach. It’s the most fascinating thing. This season Karl worked with an under-the-sea theme. But it wouldn’t be Karl if he didn’t find a rather unexpected way to interpret his idea. There were practically no greens and blues, in fact most of the collection was off-white. This was about shapes and textures you would find on the ground of the sea and it looked amazing. Jewellery was minimal and apart from one or two pieces consisted only of pearls. He even had pearls applied to the models’ backs which were exposed in some outfits. Instead of handbags pearl-encrusted giant seashells were used – I do hope they will sell these! A lot of new materials were used for this collection, which almost had a couture appeal, and Karl gave the Chanel silhouette in general and the classic suit in particular a major overhaul.
DRIES VAN NOTEN
Dries van Noten: looks 3, 7, 20 and 44 on style.com
I love these prints. Apparently some of them were night time scenes from London and Las Vegas but I don’t think anyone could tell. Once you know, you see it, though. Sometimes these prints were combined with botanicals which also lead to an interesting result. And I don’t mean ‘interesting’ as a euphemism for boring or wacky. The collection seemed a bit more serene this season, maybe because 50s couture shapes (I’m reminded of Balenciaga) were used to tone things down. Very beautiful and modern!
GIVENCHY
Givenchy: looks 4, 10, 12 and 27 on style.com
Riccardo Tisci, too, ‘did’ aquatic but his version was expectedly tough and sexy. Of course his version wasn’t in any way literal either. Even the soft pinks were kept sharp and un-girly with precise tailoring. A truly interesting collection with so much I’d love to wear. I just found it a little distracting that many of the clothes seemed so wrinkled. Maybe not let the models sit down after being dressed next time?
LANVIN
Lanvin: looks 7, 19, 30 and 44 on style.com
Woah, Lanvin! Just when you think you have a designer sussed out, he gives his work a rather unexpected spin. Alber Elbaz delivered a much darker show than usual. In a way it was less pretty but I don’t mean that in a bad way at all. I particularly loved the rhinestone snakes that wound their way around some of the dresses. They looked like jewellery but were in fact part of the garment.
ROLAND MOURET
Roland Mouret: looks 4, 16, 28 and 35 on style.com
Another beautiful collection from Roland Mouret where the designer even got a little cheeky. I love his surrealist eye cut-outs and love that he continues to shift his silhouette ever so slightly while still giving us the most flattering dresses in the business.
MAIYET
Maiyet: looks 2, 3, 10 and 28 on style.com
Maiyet is a newcomer with a social conscience. Their concept evolves around the idea of hiring experts in developing countries to create details such as embroidery. The collection had a simple elegance which got them exclusively stocked at Barney’s. I have to admit that I probably wouldn’t have paid that much attention to them in the first place, had it not been for Lori Goldstein. The uber-stylist (really, this woman is heads and shoulders above the likes of Rachel Zoe, yet is not a household name) was hired to style the show and what a beautiful job she did. Her work was very subtle which I think was pitch perfect for the clothes. Little details like a skinny belt in the gap between low-rise trousers and a shrunken blazer were all that was needed to showcase the collection.
As always, I’d love to hear (read) what your favourite shows were. Comments are more than welcome!
Weighing in on Kanye West’s debut show
Posted: October 3, 2011 Filed under: emerging designers, Paris Fashion Week, spring/summer | Tags: fashion, Fashion Editor at Large, Jess Cartner-Morley, Kanye West, Paris Fashion Week 3 Comments »
Kanye West SS12: looks 1, 5, 6, and 15 on style.com
Well, well, I couldn’t resist commenting on Kanye’s show after all. Surprisingly, I’m about to defend him. Kind of. Did I just kill all suspense? Oops, sorry!
By now the term ‘universally panned’ can safely be applied to Kanye’s show on Saturday. While I don’t think it was great, my opinion is a bit more nuanced, a little less straight forward. First of all I agree with Jess Cartner-Morley from the Guardian when she says:
‘The trouble is, it was impossible to view it as a debut collection, and that is entirely Kanye’s own fault. When you stage a show at 9.30pm on the Saturday night of Paris Fashion Week, and turn a grand Paris library into an ultraviolet light box for the venue, and fill the front row with celebrities, you are putting your clothes up for comparison with the top names of Paris fashion week. And compared to that, it just didn’t cut the mustard.’
That were exactly the expectations that were set and I think in that case his ego has gotten the better of him. I’m sure some viewed this as a cocky move to begin with and were ready to rip his work before they’ve even seen it because of it. He gets no empathy for that from me.
Critics are also correct when they pointed out that the clothes were badly fitted – or not fitted at all. Yes, this is a rookie mistake but Kanye apparently had some very professional and experienced help, it’s beyond me how this issue was never tackled in the lead-up to the show. Was it never brought up by anyone or did Kanye dismiss the advice? Again, no sympathy from me for that because, again, Paris Fashion Week/Saturday night/established designers in the front row/etc.
It is indeed quite entertaining how removed celebrities can be from the real world. It baffles me even more when they weren’t born into money and fame because it means they must have simply forgotten what live is like for the rest of us in the span of a few short years. In Kanye’s case this means offering up leather and furs for Spring/Summer. I mean… I don’t know about you but, budget aside, for me this is not an option. Only in very rare cases would I consider those things for clients. Again, I am surprised no-one seems to have pointed that out to him or they have and he did it anyway.
And now to the defending part, in case you’ve been wondering if the above was my way of being nice. In my opinion Kanye has an aesthetic, a point of view. This collection might not have been the most original (No, seriously, at this point I’m basically expecting a handwritten thank-you note by the man himself. Flowers even.) and in one way or another we have seen most pieces on other runways before but I sense a certain amount of talent. In fact I find his vision way more refined than some of the things you see coming down the runway of graduate shows at the world’s most rated fashion courses. And a lot more wearable. I can’t deny that his designs meet the current mood in fashion. So, who is going to wear his clothes? Will anybody? YES. I’m sure we will see Ciara and Rihanna in his collection very soon. Maybe even Fergie. And some of the current IT girls and top models. And if Henry Holland has taught me anything it’s that once celebrities wear your, um, creations, the rest will follow.
So, did Kanye design the collection himself? Call me naive but yes, I think so. Should he go on with it and work on his Autumn/Winter collection? That depends. If he’s sincere about his desire to be a fashion designer, then yes, follow your heart, K! Is there hope that he will learn from his mistakes? I think so. The publicity before the show led us to believe otherwise but he seemed quite humble and eager to learn once he addressed the issue himself (see Fashion Junior at Large’s transcript of the speech he gave at the after-show party on fashioneditoratlarge.blogspot.com).
What did you think about Kanye’s collection? And the hype that surrounded it?
